Mobile service revenues for the first nine months of this year total EUR 4.54 billion, up 2.4% from EUR 4.44 billion in the first nine months of 2005. Both KPN and T-Mobile outperformed the market in the first nine months of this year. Vodafone is slightly up in comparison with the first nine months of 2005, while Orange is the only operator to experience a decline in service revenues compared to the same period last year.
KPN’s share of mobile service revenues continues to rise. KPN’s share of service revenues rose to 47.5% in the third quarter while Vodafone underperformed slightly in comparison with the market in the quarter, with a market share of 27.3%. T-Mobile’s share of revenue in Q3 dropped to 17.3 percent, and Orange share dropped to 8.0 percent.
Mobile voice service revenues reached EUR 1.32 billion in Q306, up 2.3% from EUR 1.29 billion in Q206. Price pressure on mobile voice services remained strong and was illustrated by the fact that growth in the number of mobile customers has exceeded growth in mobile voice service revenues.
Non-voice service revenues increased to EUR 268 million in the third quarter of 2006, up from EUR 232 million in Q206. While the market for non-voice services is still small, we expect revenue growth to gain momentum in 2006, on the back of growing demand for mobile internet services and applications.
Growth rates are still in line with seasonal patterns, where revenue growth is negative in the first and fourth quarters of the calendar year, but positive in the second and third quarters. The revenue growth rate in the third quarter was relatively strong, but the market’s relatively weak performance in the first and second of this year suggests that growth will not exceed 2.5% this year. We expect the mobile communications services to generate between EUR 6.0 and EUR 6.1 billion in 2006.
We maintain our revenue forecast for the years 2007 and 2008 and expect that mobile internet services will slowly but surely contribute a greater share of revenue growth in coming years. However, pressure on mobile voice service prices will remain an important factor, depressing overall revenue growth rates in 2007 and 2008. We forecast revenue growth at 2-3% in 2007, rising to 3-4% in 2008 on increased demand for mobile data services.
